Saints Mid-Season Check-In

            On Sunday, the Saints triumphed in one of the weirdest (and most fun, assuming you like offense) NFL games you will ever see. The Saints and Giants scored 101 points (3^rd most in NFL history). Drew Brees and Eli Manning combined for an NFL record 13 touchdown passes. Despite the flurry of TD passes, the game came down to a Kai Forbath (yeah I have no idea who is either) field goal in the waning seconds of the fourth quarter. Brees went 40-50 (that’s an 80% completion percentage for those of you counting at home) for 511(!) yards and 7 touchdown passes. His QBR (ESPN’s inclusive quarterback rating scaled from 0-100) was an astonishing 95.7. And most importantly, it looks like Brees is finally healthy. A large number of his throws on Sunday came out of his hands quickly and were accurately delivered to his wide receivers. The victory extended the Saints winning streak to 3 games and brought their record to 4-4 at the halfway mark in the season. There’s room for optimism for Saints fans, but also some potentially crippling concerns.  

            With the win over the Giants, the Saints playoff chances have risen to 31% according the statistical analysis provided by FiveThirtyEight. With their next three games against Tennessee (1-6), Washington (3-4), and Houston (3-5), the Saints very well could be 7-4 by the end of November. The remainder of the Saints schedule is very favorable with winnable games against Tampa Bay (3-4), Detroit (1-7), and Jacksonville (2-5). The two toughest teams left are at home against the Carolina Panthers in Week 15 and at Atlanta in Week 17. New Orleans has a good chance to finish above .500, which is much better than just three weeks ago when FiveThirtyEight had them targeted for 6 wins and just an 8% of making the playoffs. Take a look at Brees’s numbers over that time frame:

	Completion/Attempts	Completion %	Yrds	TDs	INT	QBR
Vs. ATL	30/39	76.92%	312	1	0	91.8
Vs. IND	28/44	63.64%	255	1	1	61.7
Vs. NYG	40/50	80.00%	511	7	1	95.7

Over the past three games, it seems like the Saints offense and Brees have finally gotten on the same page. Heading into this week, Football Outsiders DVOA rankings had the Saints as the 8^th best offense in a league. That number will likely rise this week.

The offense can celebrate. 

            While the Saints offense finally seems to be clicking, there are some major red (and yellow) flags, all on defense. Despite the massive turnover in personnel in the offseason, the Saints defense remains atrocious. Near the end of Sunday’s game, TV cameras showed a jubilant Saints defensive coordinator Rob Ryan on the sidelines. What was he so happy about? For all the celebration that the Saints offense should rightly be doing for scoring fifty-two points, the defense allowed the Giants to score six offensive touchdowns, 416 yards, 28 first downs, and an astounding 6.4 yards per play. Eli Manning produced a QBR of 94.1, just short of Brees’s 95.7. Brandon Browner continues to a penalty machine in the secondary. He was responsible for FOUR penalties including a 15 yard unnecessary roughness penalty that set up a Manning touchdown pass on the next play. Currently the Saints sit 31^st in defensive DVOA (14.3% worse than league average) in exactly the same spot where they sat at the end of 2014. If the offense can’t score at 35 points every week, the Saints have little hope of winning.

            Despite the offseason turnover in personnel (Junior Galette, no one misses you), the Saints feature a top flight offense and a near historically bad defense. Jeez that sounds a lot like the Saints of the past few years. The more things change on the Bayou, the more they seem to stay the same.