Saints Week 1: To Punt or Not to Punt?

            New Orleans Saints lost their season opener 31-19 to the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday. The loss was all too reminiscent of the Saints struggles last season: an offense that moved the ball well, 408 yards of offense, and controlled the clock, 33:24 time of possession, but scored touchdowns on only one of four trips into the red zone. The running game failed to get going as the Saints rushed the ball 20 times for 54 yards, an anemic 2.7 yards per carry. With all of the pressure, once again, on quarterback Drew Brees, the Saints QB went 30-48 with 355 yards with one TD pass and one INT. The Cardinals easily exploited the Saints pass defense as Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer threw 307 yards and 3 touchdowns completing 19 out of 32 passes. The Cardinals had no problems running the ball, rushing 25 times for 120 yards, good for a 4.8 yard average. Defensive end Cameron Jordan managed to disrupt several of Palmer’s throws, but he was the only defender to generate any sort of pressure on Cardinals QB.

Cam Jordan was the only Saints defender who could celebrate on Sunday. 

            Despite being outplayed for much of the game, the Saints had a chance to take the lead with a little over two minutes left in the game. Thanks to the efforts of rookie kicker Zach Hocker, who converted all four of his field goal attempts including kicks from 23, 33, 27, and 45 yards, the Saints were only down 5 points with 2:12 to play in the 4^th quarter. An Arizona punt pinned the Saints back on their own 3 yard line. On first down, Brees completed a four yard pass to Mark Ingram. In second and third down, Brees failed to connect with wide receiver Marques Colston. On fourth and six from their own seven yard line, the Saints decided to punt. Thomas Morstead hit a fifty-four yard punt that went to the Cardinals 39 yard line. After a four yard return, the Cardinals began their drive from their own 43 yard line with 1:49 left. A 2 yard run up the middle forced the Saints to burn their second time out. Then Palmer connected with running back David Johnson on a screen pass. Johnson ran past the Saints defense for a 55 yard touchdown. After the extra point the score was 31-19 and the game was effectively over.

           

            The question becomes should the Saints have punted and given the Cardinals the ball back? While in hindsight the answer to that question seems obvious: No. The Cardinals scored a touchdown and won the game. But everyone’s hindsight is 20-20; decisions that seem so obvious after the fact are rarely ever so before it. Using the Win Probability Calculator devised by Brian Burke, now an ESPN analyst, we can let data guide our analysis. At the moment of the decision to punt, the Saints had fourth down and six from their own 7 yard line with 1:58 to play, giving them a 9% chance to win the game. Now let's look at some possible outcomes: 

1^st: The Saints chances of winning if they go for it on 4^th down and fail.

2^nd: The Saints chances of winning if they punt.

3rd: The Saints chances of winning if they succeed on 4th down. 

First, If New Orleans fails to convert on 4^th down they have a 5% chance to win the game (calculated by giving the Cardinals the ball on the NO 7 with 1:49 on the game clock). Second, if the Saints punt, they have a 4% chance of winning the game (5% if you use the outcome of the punt, Arizona with the ball on their own 43 yard line with 1:49 left). According to Burke’s calculator, down 5 points with 1:49 on the clock and a 1^st down from their own 14 (the distance needed for a 1^st down), the Saints have an 11% chance of the winning the game. So let’s put that into a simple chart:

Situation	Saints Win Probability
Fail to Convert on 4th down	5%
Punt	4%
Successful Conversion	11%

As the first two circumstances show, if the Saints go for it and fail or punt, their Win Probability is virtually the same (5% vs 4%). If they succeed they have an 11% chance. In other words, by going for it the Saints had nothing to lose and 6%-7% win probability to gain. There’s also the game context to consider, who, as the Saints head coach do you trust more? Drew Brees or the Saints defense? Sean Payton made his choice on Sunday.