Saints 2015 Season Preview

            On Sunday, the New Orleans Saints open their season against the Arizona Cardinals in Phoenix. As they start their 2015 campaign, the Black and Gold look to rebound from last year’s 7-9 season, their second such finish in the last three years. As we’ve discussed in previous posts, the Saints aggressively retooled their roster in the offseason, desperate to improve a defense that finished 31^st according to Football Outsiders’ Defense Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA—a statistic that calculates the outcome of every single play and compares it to league average—DVOA is expressed in a percentage with 0 as league average, offenses want to have positive DVOAs, defenses negative ones). In the Drew Brees era, the Saints have consistently been a top-flight offense and constructed their defense around generating turnovers. In 2009 that strategy paid off as the Saints triumphed over the Indianapolis Colts in Super Bowl XLIV. The Saints insistence on trading up in the draft and backloading free agent contracts has nearly crippled the team’s salary cap and caused this season’s offseason frenzy. If the Saints have any hope of being Super Bowl contenders, they’ll need their defense to take a significant step forward. So let’s break the Saints down by offense, defense, and special teams.

OFFENSE:

	DVOA (rank)	Weighted DVOA (rank)	Pass DVOA (rank)	Rush DVOA (rank)
2014	10.6% (7)	5.2% (9)	21.6% (9)	0.8% (9)

Quarterbacks: Drew Brees, Luke McCown, Garrett Grayson

Reports of Drew Brees’ demise as an elite NFL quarterback have been grossly exaggerated. In 2014, Brees finished 4^th among NFL QBs in DYAR (a Football Outsiders metric that adjusts a QB’s passing yards to league average) behind only Ben Roethlisburger, Aaron Rodgers, and Peyton Manning. On a per play basis, Brees was sixth among quarterbacks with a 15.7% DVOA (Brady and Romo jumped ahead of him). Brees remained excellent in connecting with his wide receivers on short throws completing 74% of his passes thrown within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. He got in trouble when he tried to force the ball down the field completing only 22 of 52 passes (42.3%). So keep an eye on those downfield throws, if Brees can consistently connect with wide receiver Brandin Cooks, the Saints will be in good shape. McCown enters another year as Brees’ backup and that’s all there’s to say about him. Grayson was a 3^rd round pick this year and will spend the season as a developmental project.

Running Backs: Mark Ingram, C.J. Spiller, Khiry Robinson, Tim Hightower, Austin Johnson, Marcus Murphy

The Saints gave up a 2^nd round pick in 2011 and 1^st rounder in 2012 to trade up for Ingram. In 2014, Ingram finally showed some signs of life after being plagued by injuries and ineffectiveness. He ran for 964 yards, averaging 4.3 yards per carry. According to Football Outsiders metrics, Ingram ranked 14^th in both DYAR (108) and DVOA (2.7%). The Saints then resigned him to a four year, sixteen million dollar contract. If he can build off 2014, Ingram will be worth the money. The Saints then signed the speedy and oft injured C.J. Spiller to a nearly identical contract (4 years, 16 million). Spiller is a speedy runner, but one who has only managed a single thousand yard season. For a team in salary cap hell to invest so much money in their second running back boggles the mind. Especially since Khiry Robinson was an undrafted free agent who has exceeded expectations. Tim Hightower will serve as a change of pace back, Johnson is primarily a fullback who will block and catch some passes out of the backfield, and Murphy is primarily a special teams player.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends: WR: Brandin Cooks, Marques Colston, Brandon Coleman, Willie Snead, TE: Benjamin Watson, Josh Hill

The Saints open the season thin in the pass catching department. They’ll need Cooks, their first round pick from 2014 (and the only player from that draft still on the active roster), to stay healthy and become a viable deep threat for Brees. Cooks showed his potential in the preseason game against the Patriots, catching four passes for 117 yards and a 45 yard touchdown reception. Marques Colston remains an aging, but steady option in the passing game. Look for him to collect a lot of those short passes from Brees. Coleman and Snead are both second year players who spent time on the practice squad last season. Watson and Hill will look to replace Jimmy Graham’s production in the passing game. Watson is the veteran and better blocker, while Hill is younger and the better receiver.

Offensive Line: Centers: Max Unger, Senio Kelemete 

Guards: Mike McGlynn, Tim Lelito, Jahri Evans, Senio Kelemete

Tackles: Terron Armstead,  Andreas Peat, Zack Strief  

The Saints retooled their offensive line in the offseason. Unger came over from Seattle in the Jimmy Graham trade and Peat was drafted with the 13^th overall pick. When healthy, Unger anchored the middle of the Seahawks rushing attack. With the Saints renewed focus on the running game, they will need strong offensive line to open up holes for Ingram and Spiller. They will also need to give Brees time in the pocket as he adjusts to life without Jimmy Graham.

DEFENSE

	DVOA (rank)	Weighted DVOA (rank)	Pass DVOA (rank)	Rush DVOA (rank)
2014	13.1% (31)	9.0% (28)	19.2% (27)	14.6% (32)

Defensive Linemen/Linebackers: DT: Kaleb Eulis, John Jenkins, Kevin Williams, Tyeler Davison

DE: Cameron Jordan, Aikeem Hicks, Bobby Richardson, Tavaris Barnes,

Linebackers: Hau’oli Kikaha, Stephone Anthony, Ramon Humber, Davis Tull, David Hawthorne, Dannell Ellerbe, Kassim Edebali

No matter how you look at it, the Saints defense was atrocious last year. And the defensive front seven is the weakest area on the entire roster. Cam Jordan is a Pro Bowl caliber pass rusher and defensive lineman—other than that? The Saints will rely on two rookies, Kikaha and Anthony to start at linebacker. Anthony will play inside alongside veteran castoff Dannel Ellerbe. Kikaha will play outside and rush the passer behind Jordan. Look for opponents to run up the middle against the Saints defensive tackles. In 2014, the Saints defense allowed opponents to convert 74% of their runs on 3^rd or 4^th down with two yards or fewer for either a touchdown or a first down. Last season, the Saints defense forced three and outs on only 13.9% of opponent’s drives, worst in the NFL. They’ll need to do better than that in 2015.

Defensive Backs: CBs: Keenan Lewis, Brandon Browner, Delvin Breaux, Brian Dixon, Kyle Wilson, Damian Swann

S: Jairus Byrd, Rafael Bush, Kenny Vaccaro, Jamarca Sanford

If the Saints secondary can stay healthy—and that may be tough with Lewis out for at least the first month of the season—they will be the strength of the defense. The Saints imported Brandon Browner to line up opposite Lewis. Browner is a tall and physical corner who matches up well against bigger wide receivers. He also draws a ridiculous amount of penalties, accounting for 15 penalties in 12 games for the Patriots last season. If Byrd can return to the player he was in Buffalo, he can roam the middle of the field searching for interceptions and providing safety help. This would allow Vaccaro, who struggled mightily in his second reason, to play to his strengths, near the line of scrimmage and in run support.

SPECIAL TEAMS

P Thomas Morstead

K Zack Hocker

Morstead remains one of the very best punters and kickoff specialists in the league. Hocker is largely unknown as a kicker, but in Sean Payton’s time with the Saints, he’s recognized that kickers are largely replaceable. So if Hocker struggles, the Saints will just bring in someone else.

PREDICTION

 The Saints retooled offense will run the ball a little more, rely on short passes and finish in the top 10. It would be difficult for the Saints to repeat last year’s defensive debacle. But they will continue to struggle, especially upfront where the lack of top flight talent really hurts. Anthony and Kikaha have a lot of upside, but it will take time for them to develop. I think finishing between 20 and 25 in defensive DVOA is a reasonable expectation. With Brees and Payton heading the offense, the Saints floor is about 6 wins. With that defense, the ceiling is about 10 wins. I’ll lean towards the ceiling and predict the Saints go 9-7.