As the NFL
enters its offseason doldrums (free agency is essentially over and the draft
isn’t for another few weeks), let’s put the New Orleans Saints 2016 season
under the microscope. For the third straight season, the Saints finished 7-9
and out of the playoffs. They scored 469 points while allowing 454, posting a positive
point differential for the first time since 2013. They underperformed their Pythagorean
win expectation by 1.3 wins, suggesting that they were closer to 8-8 rather
than 7-9. To review the Saints season, let’s take a look at the offense,
defense, and special teams and compare them to the last two seasons. The stats
below come from Football
Outsiders.
OFFENSE
|
|
Offensive DVOA
|
Passing DVOA
|
Rushing DVOA
|
|
2016
|
15.9% (7)
|
32.7% (6)
|
5.5% (3)
|
|
2015
|
10.5% (7)
|
30.1% (7)
|
-7.1% (15)
|
|
2014
|
10.6% (7)
|
21.6% (9)
|
0.8% (9)
|
Over the last three years, the offense has not been the
Saints problem. In fact, they’ve proven remarkably consistent, finishing 7th
in DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average, 0% is league average, on offense positives
% are good, negative % are bad, on defense the opposite is true). The power of
New Orleans’ offense lays in the passing game, which has improved over the past
three years. Despite his advancing age, quarterback Drew Brees has led the NFL
in passing yards has averaged nearly 5,000 yards and completed just over 69% of
his passes. Even as the Saints have rotated personnel around Brees, the aging quarterback
continues to lead a potent offensive attack.
DEFENSE
|
|
Defensive DVOA
|
Passing DVOA
|
Rushing DVOA
|
|
2016
|
13.2% (30)
|
27.1% (29)
|
-4.7% (19)
|
|
2015
|
26.1% (32)
|
48.1% (32)
|
-2.4% (27)
|
|
2014
|
13.1% (31)
|
19.2% (27)
|
6.3% (32)
|
For all the points that Brees and the offense score, the
defense just gives them right back. The Saints have been bad on defense for
years and while 2016 was an improvement, it was more of a regression to the
mean from a historically awful 2015. It’s really hard to be 26% worse than
league average year after year. Luck based events, like fumble recoveries or
dropped interceptions, tend to balance out over time. Since 2014, New Orleans
has had two different defensive coordinators, Rob Ryan and Dennis Allen. After
a stellar 2013, Ryan’s defensive scheme confused Saints players more often than
it did opposing quarterbacks. Ryan’s shifting personnel groupings and exotic
blitz packages failed to adapt to the league’s increasing reliance on the short
passing game. Allen hasn’t fared much better in his first full season at the
helm. While the Saints secondary endured injuries to Delvin Breaux, P.J.
Williams, Damian Swann, and Ken Crawley, apart from Breaux, New Orleans did not
have the makings of a top-flight secondary anyway.
This offseason, the Saints
management has gone all-in discussing the importance of fixing their defense.
Yet this is the same story they tell year after year, claiming that they’re
just one good draft away from being competitive on defense. The justification
in trading away wide receiver Brandin Cooks was so that they could get extra
draft picks to fix the defense. This was the same logic, Saints management used
to justify trading away Jimmy Graham in 2015. They then spent their first pick
on an offensive guard who doesn’t play guard anymore. Stephone Anthony, the
linebacker they chose with the Graham pick, could barely make it onto the field
last season. Their second round pick that year, has suffered repeated elbow
injuries and missed all of 2016. So while the Saints talk about fixing their
defense, don’t believe them until they actually pick some useful players.
SPECIAL TEAMS
|
|
Special Teams DVOA
|
XP/FG
|
Kick
|
Kick Return
|
Punt
|
Punt Return
|
|
2016
|
-2.6% (27)
|
0.0
|
-5.1
|
-8.0
|
1.2
|
-1.0
|
|
2015
|
-3.2% (26)
|
-15.4
|
-2.4
|
-2.1
|
3.8
|
0.2
|
|
2014
|
1.6% (11)
|
-4.1
|
-2.5
|
4.0
|
13.4
|
-2.6
|
(Apart from DVOA, the measurements above are expressed in
expected points added from each part of special teams, positive is good,
negative is bad).
The missing part of the story regarding the Saints the past
few years is just how bad their special teams have been. Now special teams are
not as important as offense or defense, but they play a key role in field
position, ideally giving your own offense a short field and the opponent’s a
long one. The only positive for New Orleans over the past three seasons has
been Thomas Morstead’s punting abilities, but his effectiveness has declined
due to injuries. Last season, the Saints opponents started their average drive
around the 29-yard line, 25th in the league. Yes, the defense
allowed opponents to score, but special teams didn’t do them any favors either.
