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With the New Orleans Saints 45-35 victory over the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday, the Saints’ record is now 7-1 and they are halfway through their season. As a result, we thought it would be a good time to see how their season is going so far and what we can look forward to in the second half.
Let’s start with the positives. First with their 7-1 record, New Orleans sits atop the NFC South, a game up on the 6-2 Carolina Panthers. Thanks to their victory over the Rams, the Saints now hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over Los Angeles. Currently the Rams and Saints sit atop on the NFC playoff standings. The playoffs may be a ways off, but the victory over the Rams could mean the difference between playing the NFC championship game in New Orleans as opposed to Los Angeles. According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, the Saints are the fourth best team in the NFL behind only the Rams, Chiefs, and Patriots. They have a 95.9% chance to make the playoffs, a 69.6% chance to win their division, and a 11.8% chance to win the Super Bowl. In other words, the Saints are in a great position.
Once again, Drew Brees and Sean Payton have the New Orleans offense humming along. Somewhat surprisingly the Saints have the fewest drives on offense of any team in the NFL—some of that is due to the bye week, but that’s not all of it—but they are first in points per drive and third in yards per drive. They also lead the league in time of procession per drive. In other words, when they get the ball, they usually drive down the field and score points. They also do not turn the ball over. Drew Brees has thrown 18 touchdowns to only one interception. His INT% is second in the NFL behind only Aaron Rodgers. Michael Thomas has become a superstar wide receiver right before our eyes. In eight games this season, he has caught 70 of the 79 passes thrown to him for 880 yards. He’s averaging 111 yards per game and his 5 touchdowns this year have already matched his season total from 2017. Running back Alvin Kamara meanwhile has 917 yards from scrimmage and 12 touchdowns in only 12 games.
The Saints special teams have also quietly been a key a contributor to the Saints hot start. Will Lutz has brought stability to the kicker position after years of New Orleans cycling through two or so mediocre kickers per year. The kickoff and punt teams have also been especially strong. The Saints lead the NFL in starting field position for their offensive drives. They also are fourth in starting field position for their opponents. Now they have also benefitted some from good luck. Football Outsiders charts a metric called Hidden Points that includes factors outside a team’s control like opposing field goals, kickoff and punt distances and have gained an estimated 14.8 points.
Despite the strong start, there are some warning signs on the horizon. First, the Carolina Panthers are 6-2 and only a game behind the Saints. The two teams have yet to play this season and those matchups will go a long way towards determining whether New Orleans will win the NFC South again. Second, according to Football Outsiders as of last week, the Saints have played the easiest schedule in the league so far. Their remaining schedule—which included the Rams—ranks as the 10th hardest going forward. Beating the Rams helps, but New Orleans has a lot of tough games ahead.
Most importantly, the Saints defense has significantly regressed from last season. They rank 29th in Football Outsiders DVOA. They are 28th in opponent’s yards per drive and points per drive. They are 30th in points allowed per drive and red zone points allowed and 31st in 3 and Outs. While they’ve only faced 70 opponent drives, the second fewest in the league, the New Orleans defense is giving away points on nearly every drive. The Saints have had a strong run defense—2nd in DVOA—but their pass defense, the team’s strength last year, has been atrocious—29th in DVOA. In a league where passing numbers are up across the board and where the Saints have invested significant draft capital—Marshon Lattimore, Marcus Williams, and the newly acquired Eli Apple—the Saints had better fix their pass defense problems quickly. Because if the offense can’t keep up its pace, the defense will have a hard time holding their opponents down.
Halfway through the Saints season and things have gone as well as fans could have hoped. The question is, can the offense and special teams continue to carry New Orleans or will a tougher schedule and below average defense drag down their Super Bowl hopes? The next eight games will prove the answer.
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