Saints Quarter-Season Check-In

The Saints season is going well

            After four games, the New Orleans Saints have a record of 3-1. They have a half game lead over the Carolina Panthers in the NFC South. Since the Saints are a quarter of their way through the season, we thought it would be a good time to check in with how their season has gone so far. We’ll be looking at three numbers to be excited about for the rest of the season and two numbers that should concern Saints fans. 

Three Numbers to Get Excited About 

66.9%

            According to Football Outsiders, the Saints have a 66.9% chance of making the playoffs after four weeks. That is the fifth highest percentage in the NFL, behind the Rams, Chiefs, Bears, and Ravens. Football Outsiders also gives New Orleans a 5.3% chance of winning the Super Bowl. Currently the Saints are third in the NFC behind the undefeated Rams and the 3-1 Bears. The NFC South is always a competitive division, but the Falcons are 1-3 after two close losses and the Buccaneers have lost two games in a row after beating the Saints and Super Bowl champion Eagles to open up the season. The Panthers have already lost to the Falcons and barely beat the Cowboys. The road to the playoffs is open for the Saints. 

95.5% 

            Saints quarterback Drew Brees has thrown 44 passes to wide receiver Michael Thomas. Thomas has caught an NFL-leading 42 of those passes for a 95.5% catch rate. He is averaging 11.3 yards per game and 10.5 yards per reception. Thomas has already amassed 445 yards in just four games, putting him on track for nearly 1,800 yards receiving. With quarterback Drew Brees completing 75.8% of his passes with 8 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, Thomas should get plenty more opportunities as the season goes on. 

137 

            2018 is just like any other season in the history of the Drew Brees-Sean Payton partnership. The Saints are second in the NFL with 137 offensive points, only three behind the league leading Rams. New Orleans is averaging 34.3 points per game. Week Two’s game against the Browns was the only game where the Saints did not score 30 points. Running back Alvin Kamara has 661 yards from scrimmage over the first four games with six touchdowns. Kamara is averaging 68.8 yards on the ground and 84 yards through air per game. With the return of Mark Ingram next week, there’s little reason to suspect that the Saints offense will slow down anytime soon. 

Age 39 and Brees is cruising along 

Two Numbers to Be Concerned About 

121 

            While the Saints have scored 137 points, they’ve also allowed their opponents to score 121 points, 4^thworst in the league. Opposing teams have averaged 30.3 points per game. And, apart from the Falcons, the Saints have not exactly faced a murderer’s row of offenses. Tampa Bay, Cleveland, and the Giants are not anyone’s idea of the best offenses in the NFL. And the future does not bode well as the Saints have the Vikings, Rams, Bengals, Eagles, and Falcons in a five week stretch coming up. Unless the defense takes a dramatic step forward, New Orleans could be in trouble. 

45.7% 

            The New Orleans defense has allowed opponents to convert 45.7% of their third downs—fifth worst in the NFL. This is part of a larger trend of the Saints defense being unable to force opponent’s offenses off the field. They’ve allowed 39.26 yards per drive, 3^rdworst in the league. And most troublingly, New Orleans has struggled to create turnovers. So far this season, they’re last in the league in creating turnovers. Last season, the Saints ranked 9^thin the NFL. This inability to create turnovers or stop opponents on third down has given opponents more opportunities to score and has put more pressure on the offense to keep scoring.