Saints 2017: Half-Seaon Check-In

            Halfway through their season, the New Orleans Saints are 6-2 and leading the NFC South, a game ahead of the 5-3 Carolina Panthers. After opening the season with a pair of losses to the Vikings and Patriots, it seemed like another lost season for the Saints. The defense allowed 29 and 36 points to Minnesota and New England and the offense struggled to keep up. Sam Bradford and Tom Brady threw for 346 and 447 yards against the New Orleans passing defense and all the talk about an improved Saints defense seemed like that—just talk. Six wins later, however, the Saints are in prime position for a playoff run thanks to improved defensive play.   

            FiveThirtyEight currently projects the Saints to win 11 games, the most of any team in the NFC South. They have an 80% chance to make the playoffs, a 63% chance to win the division, and a 38% chance to get a first-round bye. To get a better sense of just how much and where New Orleans has improved, let’s look at Football Outsiders DVOA ratings (expressed in percentages relative to a league average of 0, positive offensive and special teams DVOAs are good, negative DVOAs are better for defense).

Saints 2017 DVOA (rank)
Total	Offensive	Defensive	Special Teams
21.5% (5)	19.4% (3)	-4.4% (16)	-2.3% (23)

There’s nothing new about the Saints offense being near the top of the league. In the Payton-Brees era, they have finished outside of the top 10 in offensive DVOA once—in 2010 when they finished 11^th. Throughout the last three seasons of 7-9 finishes, the offense has never been the problem. 

            Instead it’s the Saints defense that is responsible for the team’s turnaround around this year. As ESPN’s Bill Barnwell pointed out, in 11 seasons under head coach Sean Payton, New Orleans has finished in the top 25 of defensive DVOA only 4 times. In each of those years, 2006, 2009, 2010, and 2013 the Saints have made the playoffs and won an average of 11.3 games. If New Orleans can give Drew Brees a defensive that isn’t terrible, good things happen. Now let’s look at what the 2017 defense is doing to distinguish itself from its inglorious predecessors. (Just a reminder, for defensive DVOA negatives are good, and positives are bad, a -4.4% means New Orleans’ defense was 4.4% better than league average. 13.1% means they were 13.1% worse than league average)

	Defensive DVOA (rank)	Pass Defense DVOA (rank)	Run Defense DVOA (rank)
2014	13.1% (31)	26.0% (31)	6.3% (32)
2015	26.1% (32)	48.1% (32)	-2.4% (27)
2016	14.6% (31)	27.4% (30)	-3.2% (23)
2017	-4.4% (16)	-12.3% (4)	5.8% (29)

The Saints defensive improvement is driven by their improved pass defense. Through seven games this season (DVOA won’t be updated with this weekend’s games until later today), New Orleans has seen a nearly 40 percentage point swing in its defense. Over the last few years, the Saints have invested significant draft capital on their defensive secondary and it finally seems to be paying off. 2013 saw the addition of safety Kenny Vaccaro whose career has been erratic, but has played well this year. This past year, the Saints spent first and second round picks on cornerback Marshon Lattimore and safety Marcus Williams. In 2016, they added safety Vonn Bell and in 2015 added cornerback P.J. Williams. Combined with the injured Delvin Breaux, the Saints finally seem to have the talent to stop opposing pass offenses.

            The Saints defense has benefitted from a couple other factors. According to Football Outsiders drive stats, the Saints defense has had the 4^th best field position to defend. That’s a testament to the kickoff and punting skills of punter Thomas Morstead, who has been effective in pinning opponents deep in their own territory. It’s easier to stop opponents when they have more of the field to cover. Additionally, the Saints are sixth in opponent’s turnovers per drive. They have intercepted nine passes and recovered three fumbles. Getting the opposition to turn the ball over is a great way to stop them from scoring any points.

            With all of these improvements, the Saints defense still ranks 16^th in DVOA. In their last six games, they haven’t exactly faced a murderer’s row of opponents. Football Outsiders has them as facing the 12th easiest schedule in the league. But the bigger point is, New Orleans’ doesn’t have to field a good defense to win a lot of games. They just have to field one that isn’t terrible. We’ll see how well they hold up over the rest of the season.