Saints 2017 Season Preview

            The 2016 season came and went for the New Orleans Saints. After promises of defensive improvement under new coordinator Dennis Allen and hopes of a playoff berth, the Saints finished 7-9 for the third year in a row.  This offseason offered similar pledges of improving the defense and hopefully returning the Saints to relevance in the NFC South.

            Yet when it came down to putting those promises into action, once again tNew Orleans management (GM Mickey Loomis and head coach Sean Payton) failed to improve their team in any meaningful way. They traded away wide receiver Brandin Cooks to the New England Patriots for 1^st and 3^rd picks to rebuild the defense (or so they claimed). When the draft came, however, the Saints went back to their same old patterns—trading up and investing high picks in areas where they already had significant depth. With their first pick, New Orleans selected Marcus Lattimore, a cornerback. Considering they ranked 30^th in pass defense by DVOA last year, this was a good pick. Next up was offensive tackle Ryan Ramczyk, who while he should start on the offensive line does not play defense. The selection of running back Alvin Kamara in the third round epitomizes the Saints’ post-Super Bowl organizational problems. Here’s what we wrote in our Saints draft recap about Kamara.

This is the kind of pick that should drive Saints fans crazy.  Why do the Saints need another running back? They already have Mark Ingram, a washed-up Adrian Peterson, and Tavaris Cadet.  There’s only so many snaps to go around.  Also, the Saints gave up their second round pick in 2018 to draft Kamara. Giving away valuable future picks to get guys who probably won’t start for you in 2017 is precisely the kind of bad decision making that got the Saints in their current mess.

What does this mess look like? Let’s look at the last three seasons using Football Outsiders DVOA rankings.

	Total DVOA	Offensive DVOA	Defensive DVOA	Special Teams DVOA
2016	-1.9% (19)	15.4% (6)	14.6% (31)	-2.6% (27)
2015	-18.7% (28)	10.5% (7)	26.1% (32)	-3.2% (26)
2014	-0.9% (17)	10.6% (7)	13.1% (31)	1.6% (11)

            Starting to notice a pattern here? Good to great offenses, atrocious defenses, and terrible special teams. What’s that all add up to? 7-9 records for three seasons in a row.

            There’s little reason to suspect anything will be different this season. On offense, quarterback Drew Brees will likely throw 4,500+ yards and 30+ touchdowns. Michael Thomas, who caught 92 passes for 1,137 yards and 9 TDs, will slide into the top wide receiver slot. Between Ingram, Peterson, Kamara, and Cadet, Brees will have plenty of backs capable of running the ball or catching it out the backfield. While left tackle Terron Armstead will miss the first few weeks of the season, the Saints offensive line is set with veterans Max Unger, Zach Strief, and new signed Larry Waford. Younger starters Andrus Peat (a 2015 draft pick who has shuffled around the line) and Ramczyk should be more than capable of protecting Brees. But offense has never been the problem in the Payton-Brees era.      

Meanwhile injuries already started to take their toll on the defense.  Cornerback Delvin Breaux was placed on injured reserve and won’t return until at least week 9.  During training camp, head coach Sean Payton complained that Breaux needed to tough it out and play through his injuries. A few days later, the Saints fired their orthopedists after they misdiagnosed Breaux’s fractured fibula. Last year, the Saints cut cornerback Keenan Lewis after similarly complaining about his unwillingness to play hurt. Lewis claimed that the Saints orthopedists misdiagnosed his leg injury. Defensive tackle Nick Fairley, one of the few bright spots on last year’s defense, returned to the team on a 4 year, $28 million deal. In July, however, he was diagnosed with a heart ailment that will likely end his career. Without Fairley and Breaux, it’s hard to imagine the Saints getting any better on defense.   

The 16 game NFL season leads to a lot of variability. Sometimes 8-8 teams go 10-6, sometimes they go 5-11. Could the Saints make the playoffs? Sure. Right now, however, it’s hard to see how New Orleans is demonstrably better than it was last season (or the two season before that). So there’s no reason to predict anything other than another 7-9 season.