2017 Saints Offseason: The Brandin Cooks Trade

            After a third straight 7-9 season, the New Orleans Saints entered the NFL’s off season determined to not waste another year of Drew Brees’ (soon-to-be over) Hall of Fame career. Thanks to a rising salary cap and a delayed cap hit from Brees’ contract extension (he’ll count $18 million against the cap next year whether he’s on the roster or not), the Saints have been active in free agency and the trade market. Next week, we’ll take a look at their free agent signings. But for this week, I wanted to focus on their biggest move of the offseason: the trade of wide receiver Brandin Cooks to the New England Patriots.

The Trade: Brandin Cooks and the 118^th pick (4^th round) in the draft for the 32^nd (1^st round) and 103^rd picks (3^rd round)

            The logic behind the Saints getting rid of Cooks is convoluted. There were rumblings of the Cooks being dissatisfied with his role on the team last season. Despite this apparent unhappiness, he caught 78 receptions for 1,173 yards and 8 touchdown passes. New Orleans also wants to improve its defense and thinks weakening the offense is the way to go. Coach Sean Payton explained in an interview that “As we're trying to improve on defense, you look at every avenue that might give you that chance.” Additionally, the Saints felt pressured to move quickly since they owed Cooks a nearly $800,000 roster bonus that the Patriots are now responsible for paying. So the Saints felt they needed to trade Cooks because they need to improve the defense, Cooks was apparently unhappy but productive, and they didn’t want to pay him a roster bonus? These moves suggest that they’re cheap (and/or have no money).

They also show that New Orleans doesn’t understand how to value players properly. Cooks is 23 (he’ll turn 24 in September) and has two years left on his contract. The first year is worth only $1.5 million and the second is a 5^th year option worth $8.5 million. Not bad for a guy who has had 1,138 and 1,1173 receiving yards over the past two seasons to go along with 17 TD receptions. To replace Cooks, the Saints signed Ted Ginn Jr., a wide receiver known for being speedy and not being able to catch the ball at all. He is 31 (eight years older) and signed to a 3 year, $11 million contract. Ginn has never had a thousand-yard season. He’s never had a nine hundred-yard season. He’s never even had an eight hundred-yard season. So which would you rather have—Cooks, a talented wide receiver on the rise? Or Ginn, for less money per season, but markedly less production?

There’s also the draft pick compensation to consider. The Saints received #32 and #103 picks and had to send away #118. According to Chase Stuart’s draft value chart, the difference between the picks is worth 13.4 AV (approximate value, an inclusive measure of how much a player is worth) or the equivalent of the 28^th pick in the draft. Cooks, over the past two seasons, has been worth 20 AV and that’s a fair barometer for him going forward as well (barring injury). So, the value of the draft picks New Orleans has acquired doesn’t even add up to Cooks’ production. So the choice is Cooks versus Ginn and the 28^th pick. If you’re trying to win now, you take the talented young receiver on the rise and devote the resources you used on signing Ginn to helping the defense.

Now, that may not be the end of the Saints wheeling and dealing with the Patriots. New Orleans hosted restricted free agent and New England cornerback Malcolm Butler for a visit last week. (Restricted free agency means that the Patriots have the right to match any offer to Butler or let him leave and receive the signing team’s first round pick in return.) Butler, the hero of Super Bowl XLIX, has not signed his one year, $3.91 million offer with the Patriots (meaning he can’t be traded yet). Now the Saints are unlikely to simply sign Butler to a contract and surrender their first rounder (11th overall) to the Patriots. A more likely scenario would be the Saints and Butler working out a contract extension (requiring significant financial resources that the Saints apparently don’t have, since they just traded Cooks to avoid paying him eight hundred grand) and then sending the 32^nd pick overall back to New England.

The Revised Trade: Brandin Cooks & the 118^th pick to the Patriots for Malcolm Butler & the 103^rd pick

In this scenario, the Saints move up 15 spots in the draft and get one guaranteed year of Malcolm Butler while the Patriots move down 15 spots (the equivalent of a sixth-round pick) and pick up two guaranteed years of Brandin Cooks. 

 While the Saints claim they’re trying to win now, they’ll have paid a premium to send their star wide receiver out of town with two years remaining on his contract in exchange for the equivalent of a late first round pick. Or they’ll have paid an even higher premium to move up 15 spots in the draft and get one year of Malcolm Butler and in exchange for two of Brandin Cooks and a sixth-round pick. Either way, it’s hard to see how the Saints are better off than they were a month ago.