2016 World Series Preview

            The Chicago Cubs last won the World Series in 1908. They last played in the World Series in 1945.  The Cleveland Indians, meanwhile, last took home baseball’s championship trophy in 1948. These World Series droughts of 107 and 67 years are the two current longest in baseball.  And in a little more than a week, one of them will be over. In light of this historic World Series that will salve the souls of one of baseball’s formerly moribund franchises, let’s take a quick look how these two teams match up.

	Win-Loss Record	Runs Scored	Runs Allowed	Run Differential	BaseRuns Record
CHI	103-58	808 (3)	556 (1)	+252	107-55
CLE	94-67	777 (5)	676 (7)	+101	91-70

The Cubs had the best record in baseball this season and finished 3^rd in runs scored and first in runs allowed. Cleveland won the AL Central division title before easily dispatching the Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays in the divisional and league championship rounds. They finished 5^th and 7^th in runs scored and runs allowed respectively. The telling statistic here is each team’s BaseRuns record, suggesting that Chicago underperformed relative to its record, while Cleveland overperformed.  BaseRuns records are based on a metric known as BaseRuns. BaseRuns estimate how many runs a team would be expected to score (or allow) based on their underlying performance. Because of factors out of a team’s control like luck, the number of runs a team scores isn’t always indicative of their true talent level, so BaseRuns tries to remove these factors. Looking at BaseRuns, Chicago was even more impressive than their 103 wins would indicate.

OFFENSE

	AVG/OBP/SLG	Runs/Game	wOBA	wRC+
CHI	.256/.343/.429	4.99 (3)	.333 (3)	106 (3)
CLE	.262/.329/.430	4.83 (4)	.326 (7)	102 (6)

A simple comparison of each team’s batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage suggests that they’re pretty evenly matched.  Chicago and Cleveland even finished 3^rd and 4^th in runs per game. A look at some of the advanced metrics like wOBA and wRC+, however, reveals that Chicago has the better offense. wOBA (weighted on-base average) is based on a simple idea—that not all hits are created equal. A home run is worth more than a single for instance. The formula uses linear weights to weigh the value of each hit and in this case, it reveals that Chicago has a bigger edge than it first seems.  wRC+ is a measure of offensive production that is weighted to league average of 100 and any digit above or below 100 is equal to 1% above or below league average. The Cubs with a wRC+ of 106 are 6% above league average, while Cleveland is only 2%, a small, but significant advantage.

PITCHING

	AVG/OBP/SLG	ERA	FIP	ERA+
CHI	.212/.285/.348	3.15 (1)	3.77 (5)	128 (1)
CLE	.243/.304/.407	3.86 (7)	3.91 (8)	122 (2)

As we look closer at each team’s pitching staff, Chicago, again, has the advantage over Cleveland.  Overall, Chicago has held its opponents to much lower batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage than Cleveland.  A simple look at these numbers is misleading, however, as Chicago plays in the weaker offensive league (no designated hitter) and as we will discuss below benefits from a better defense. Chicago also holds a significant edge in earned run average, but while ERA is one of the longstanding measures of pitching effectiveness, it’s too noisy to tell us much on its own. FIP (or fielding independent pitching) attempts to strip out the noise by taking out all of the things that pitchers can’t control (like defense) and focusing on those they can—like strikeouts, walks, and home runs allowed. A FIP based comparison suggests that Chicago and Cleveland are a little closer together than it seems. Looking at ERA+ (a similar statistic to wRC+, in that it takes ERA, adjusts it to league average of 100), the Cubs have the best pitching staff in the league, while Cleveland is second. Overall, the Cubs have the better pitching staff.

DEFENSE

	DRS	UZR	DEF. EFF.
CHI	82 (1)	73 (1)	.728 (1)
CLE	17 (9)	35.6 (4)	.696 (6)

Finally, we’ll briefly cover the defenses of both teams. Defensive statistics have only recently come into their own thanks to the introduction MLB Statcast and better ball tracking software.  Nonetheless, there remains a wide disparity between advanced defense statistics, so it’s best to take a sample of a few different ones. DRS (defensive runs saved), an estimate of the number of runs saved by defenders over the whole season, has the Cubs rated significantly higher than Cleveland. In general, ten runs is the equivalent of one win, meaning the Cubs added about eight wins just by their defense. UZR (ultimate zone rating) similarly has the Cubs with the best defense in baseball by a significant margin. Finally, defensive efficiency (simply the percentage of balls put into play that the team turned into outs) has the Cubs as the best defense in baseball. 

PREDICTION: Given their advantages on offense, defense, and pitching, Chicago is the favorite to bring home its first World Series title since 1908. CUBS in 5.