Saints Season Preview Part Two: Defense

            Last week the first part of our Saints season preview we looked at the offense. With Drew Brees at quarterback and Sean Payton calling the plays, New Orleans should once again score plenty of points. The weakness of the Saints, as it has been for years now, is the defense. In 2015, New Orleans finished 32^nd in Football Outsiders defensive DVOA rankings with a DVOA of 26.1% (meaning they were 26.1% worse than league average). To give a sense of just how bad the Saints were, the difference between the Saints and 31^st ranked Chicago Bears was equivalent to the difference between the Bears and the 12^th ranked Patriots. If the Saints have any hope of competing for a playoff spot, they’ll need the defense make some big strides forward. 

Cameron Jordan sacking Cam Newton

DEFENSIVE LINEMEN

Cameron Jordan, Tyeler Davison, Kasim Edebali, Paul Kruger, Sheldon Rankins, Nick Fairley, Obum Gwacham, John Jenkins, David Onyemata

What’s New? Defensive end/outside linebacker Paul Kruger and defensive tackle Nick Fairley are formerly productive veterans signed to cheap one year deals—precisely the kind of signings the Saints should be making. If they pan out, then New Orleans has gotten good players for not a lot of money. If they don’t, their signings won’t strangle the Saints salary cap. The biggest other addition is Sheldon Rankins, a mammoth defensive tackle who should help in run defense, except Rankins in on Injured Reserve and will miss at least half the season.

What’s Old? Other than exceptional pass rusher Cameron Jordan, there isn’t anything to get excited about. The Saints were 31^st in Football Outsiders Adjusted Line yards (a metric designed to measure the ability of the defensive line to stop opposing rushers) and 20^th in adjusted sack rate. If the Saints defensive line is going to improve, they’re going to have to hope that Fairley and Kruger are healthy and effective, otherwise there’s not that much difference between this year’s group and last year’s.

LINEBACKERS

Dannell Ellerbe, James Laurinaitis, Stephone Anthony, Nate Stupar, Craig Robertson, Michael Mauti

What’s New? New Orleans signed former LA Rams linebacker James Laurinaitis to a 3 year, $8.25 million contract. Laurinaitis will assume defensive play calling responsibilities from Stephone Anthony, one of the Saints two 1^st round picks from 2015. Laurinaitis has struggled with injuries and ineffectiveness the last few seasons, so who knows what kind of contributor he’ll be.

What’s Old? New Orleans acquired Dannell Ellerbe as part of the Kenny Stills trade last year and it’s still puzzling why they wanted him. In 2014, Ellerbe only played in 1 game due to injuries. He’s never played a full 16 game season or looked particularly competent since leaving the Ravens in 2013. Yet there he is, ready to play significant snaps for a team in desperate need of competent linebacker play.

Cornerback Delvin Breaux breaks up a pass to Julio Jones 

DEFENSIVE BACKS

Delvin Breaux, P.J. Williams, De'Vante Harris, Ken Crawley, Cortland Finnegan, Kenny Vaccaro, Jairus Byrd, Von Bell, Roman Harper, Erik Harris

What’s New? The Saints have invested heavily in revamping their atrocious secondary. They finished 32^nd in pass defense last year according to DVOA. In the spring, the Saints released penalty machine Brandon Browner and just a few weeks ago let go of former starting cornerback Keenan Lewis, a year after puzzlingly guaranteeing more of his contract when Lewis had no leverage whatsoever. This year, the Saints invested a 3^rd round pick in safety Von Bell, resigned safety Roman Harper after letting him go to Carolina in free agency a few years ago, and brought in veteran cornerback Courtland Finnegan, known as much for his quarrelsome personality as his play on the field.

What’s Old? The Saints will return former CFL player Devlin Breaux as their new lead cornerback. On a defense full of disappointments, Breaux was the lone bright spot, flashing the ability to contest passes and hinder opposing wide receivers. Starting safeties Kenny Vaccaro and Jairus Byrd return. Since signing a massive free agent contract Byrd has either been hurt or terrible. Vaccaro, who had an impressive rookie season, has declined the last two years. Perhaps under new defensive coordinator Dennis Allen he can recapture some of that ability that made him a 1^st round pick.  

SPECIALISTS

Thomas Morstead, Kai Forbath, Justin Drescher

What’s New? Nothing.

What’s Old? Everything. The Saints return the same punter, kicker, and long snapper from last year. Morstead is the most important of the three as he handles both punts and kickoffs.

PREDICTION TIME

So now that we’ve taken a look at the Saints roster from top to bottom, it’s prediction time. There’s a lot of variance with this team. If Brees gets hurt and misses significant time, they could go 4-12. If the defense comes together and becomes something respectable—say 20^th or so in DVOA, they could go 10-6 or 11-5 and make the playoffs. And who doesn’t want to see one of the best quarterbacks ever in the playoffs? Or they could meet somewhere in the middle. While the defense could improve, there’s still a huge absence of talent on that side of the ball, so let’s go with a record of 8-8.