Kenny Stills Trade

            As we continue our journey through the Saints offseason, let’s look at the other major trade that the Saints pulled off: sending wide receiver Kenny Stills to the Miami Dolphins for a 3^rd round pick and linebacker Dannell Ellerbe.

            So let’s start by breaking down the components of the trade. First off is Kenny Stills. Stills was a 2013 fifth round pick of the Saints (144^th overall). In two seasons with the team, Stills played in 31 (of 32) games. He caught 95 passes for 1,572 yards, good for an average of 16.5 yards per catch. 8 of his 95 receptions went for touchdowns. In his two seasons with the team, Stills emerged as the deep threat in the Saints passing offense. In 2013, Stills’ average reception came 13.9 yards past the line of scrimmage, tops in the NFL. For all the Saints recent troubles with the draft, Stills represented a big success. He was a significant return on the Saints’ investment; the 144^th pick is worth 3 AV. In his two years with the Saints, Stills produced 14 AV.

Stills will be catching passes in Miami next year. 

            In return the Saints received  Miami’s third round pick, number 78. The 78^th pick in the draft is worth 7.9 AV, according to Chase Stuart’s draft pick calculator. In a vacuum, the Saints took the 144^th pick in the draft, got two years of above average production and then flipped it for the 78^th pick. They also traded the two more years of team control of Stills for four of the pick. They also have the option to move up or down or keep the pick. This is how smart franchises operate. They hit on late round picks and flip them for more than they were originally worth.

            So the question is, what the hell is Dannell Ellerbe (and his onerous contract) doing in this trade? The Saints spent much of their offseason clearing out desperately needed cap room (trading Graham, Ben Grubbs, releasing Curtis Lofton etc.), only to take on the last three years of Ellerbe’s 5 year, 35 million dollar contract. Apart from one standout season with the Ravens, Ellerbe has never been a particularly productive player. In six seasons, he’s produced 20 AV (compared to Stills’ 14 in 2). His only productive season came in his last year in Baltimore. He parlayed that 4.5 sack, 66 tackle season into a big contract from the Dolphins. Here’s a hint to the rest of the league, when Baltimore lets a defender leave, they have a reason. The Dolphins gave Ellerbe 14 million dollars guaranteed including a 7 million dollar signing bonus. In early March, it was reported that Miami was planning to release Ellerbe. Instead, the Saints traded for him and instead of releasing him, restructured his contract.

Why is he a Saint? 

            Now Ellerbe’s contract lasts three years and pays him 15.2 million dollars with 5.2 million guaranteed. In 2015, he’s collecting a base salary of 1.1 million with 800,000 in bonuses, counting only 1.9 million against the cap. That figure, however, jumps to 5.9 million in 2016 and 2017. The worst part is most of that, 4.1 million each year, is base salary, meaning that if the Saints cut Ellerbe, that full amount counts against their cap. With roster bonuses of 1 and 1.1 million, there’s little room to push that cap number down. He has to either produce or be dead weight against the cap. The worst part of the Ellerbe situation is that it’s contracts like these (with Curtis Lofton Ben Grubbs, etc.) that put the Saints in salary cap hell to begin with.

            So on the one hand, the Saints have done a good job developing Kenny Stills into a trade-able asset. On the other, they repeated the mistakes of the past few years (that nearly crippled them) by signing an overpriced veteran to an unwieldy salary.