In 2013, following the return of head
coach Sean Payton and the arrival of new defensive coordinator, Rob Ryan, the
New Orleans Saints posted a record of 11-5. In the playoffs, they beat the Philadelphia
Eagles 26-24 before falling 23-15 to the Seattle Seahawks in the divisional
round. The Saints had Super Bowl aspirations entering 2014. Despite being tight
against the salary cap, they resigned tight end Jimmy Graham to a four year
deal and brought in safety Jarius Byrd from the Bills to bolster their
defensive backfield. The moves indicated that the Saints wanted to win another
Super Bowl before the end of quarterback Drew Brees’s career.
Currently the Saints’s record is 2-4,
second in the NFC South. Three of their losses have been by a combined six
points. In games decided by six points or fewer the Saints are 1-3. Some of this
poor record is simply bad luck—a play or two goes the other way in any of the
Atlanta, Cleveland or Detroit games and suddenly the Saints are 5-1. But luck
isn’t the sole reason for the Saints poor record through seven weeks. In order
to understand where the Saints have faltered this year, we need to dig a little
deeper. So let’s start with their average production on drives (courtesy of Football Outsiders).
Saints Drive Statistics
|
|
Yards/Drive
|
Points/Drive
|
Plays/Drive
|
LOS/Drive
|
|
Offense
|
41.86
(1)
|
2.48
(7)
|
6.81
(1)
|
22.73
(31)
|
|
Defense
|
37.20
(29)
|
2.53
(30)
|
6.47
(29)
|
25.45
(9)
|
The
Saints offense has managed the most yards and plays per drive in the NFL. Yet
they are only seventh in points. Brees’s seven interceptions (more on turnovers
later) have contributed to this lower than expected scoring output. They have
also suffered from lousy field position, 31st in the league. It’s
great to have lots of plays and yards, but it’s hard to convert them into
points if you have to traverse the field much farther than your opponents. And
most importantly, for every long drive the offense manages to string together,
the defense gives it right back. Saints opponents are nearly matching the
offense in terms of production. Think of it this way, this year the Saints
offense has played against itself on the other sideline. It’s hard to win a lot
of games that way.
SAINTS
ON OFFENSE
While it would be easy to place the
blame for the Saints poor start solely on the defense, there’s more to the
story than that. So let’s go deeper on the Saints offense.
Saints Overall Offense 2013 vs.
2014
|
|
Points/Game
|
Yards/Game
|
Adj.
Sack Rate
|
Offensive
DVOA
|
Pass
DVOA
|
Run
DVOA
|
|
2013
|
25.9
(10)
|
399.4
(4)
|
5.3%
(4)
|
16.0%
(5)
|
35.9%
(3)
|
-5.3%
(19)
|
|
2014
|
25.8
(10)
|
437
(2)
|
2.9%
(2)
|
11.8%
(7)
|
18.3%
(15)
|
10.2%
(2)
|
At first glance, the Saints offense
seems to be humming along as usual. They’re scoring at almost an identical rate
as last season. They’re even averaging more yards per game. The offensive line
has kept Brees off his back, allowing sacks on only 2.9% of his dropbacks. Even
their overall offense according to DVOA (explained here) is similar
to last season. Yet when we look closer at their passing and running games, a
disturbing trend begins to emerge. The passing game that has terrorized
opponents since Sean Payton and Drew Brees arrived in New Orleans has declined
significantly from last season.
Saints Passing Offense
|
|
Yards/Game
|
Plays
of 20+ Yards
|
Average
20+ Yard Plays/Game
|
Yards
per Reception
|
|
2013
|
307.4
(2)
|
67
|
4.1875
|
11.6
(14)
|
|
2014
|
314
(2)
|
18
|
3
|
10.8
(25)
|
The Saints offense is producing
similar yards per game, but the decline stems from the lack of big plays down
the field. Over the Payton-Brees partnership the Saints have always relied on a
balance of short passes to their running backs and wide receivers and deep
throws down the field. The short passes function as an extension of their
running game. They get the ball to their pass catchers in space and pick up
chunks of yardage. Downfield passes prevent teams from stacking the line of
scrimmage and smothering the short passing game. This season the Saints have
largely lacked that deep threat. Their average number of plays 20+ yards
downfield has fallen dramatically and consequently so has their average yards
per reception. Without the threat of quick score on a long pass, the Saints
cannot generate the big scoring plays that build leads and create extra
possessions.
DEFENSE
Saints Defense 2013 vs. 2014
|
|
DVOA
|
Pass
DVOA
|
Run
DVOA
|
Points
per Game
|
Run
Yards per Game
|
Adj.
Sack Rate
|
3rd
Down Conversions
|
|
2013
|
-5.8%
(10)
|
-9.2%
(6)
|
-1.5%
(20)
|
19.0
(4)
|
111.6
(19)
|
8.6%
(4)
|
34.7%
(9)
|
|
2014
|
17.7%
(32)
|
39.3%
(30)
|
-8.6%
(16)
|
27.5
(28)
|
103.2
(11)
|
3.6%
(29)
|
46.3%
(26)
|
The
Saints’ defensive decline has been staggering. A quick look at DVOA reveals
where the Saints defense has gone wrong this year. The Saints front four has
generated little pressure on the quarterback as evidenced by their atrocious
adjusted sack rate. Pass rushers Cameron Jordan and Junior Gallette have failed
to build on their breakout from last year. The inability to pressure the
quarterback has exacerbated the problems in the defensive backfield. The Saints
pass defense is similarly woeful. Last year the defense allowed 194.1 passing
yards per game, second in the league. This year, they rank 28th with
270.5 yards per game. The defensive backs have been especially burned by
opponents’ number one receivers, allowing 108.2 yards per game compared to only
48.6 last year. Part of this problem has stemmed from poor play by the
defensive backs. Opposing offenses have repeatedly picked on defensive backs
Patrick Robinson and Corey White. Robinson and White both played extensively
last season, but with the departure of Malcolm Jenkins, Jabari Greer, and Roman
Harper have been called on to play a bigger role in the defense. So far they
haven’t been up to the task. The season ending injury to Jarius Byrd has only
worsened the problem. Byrd’s coverage skills were supposed to meld well with
second year safety Kenny Vaccaro’s run defense. Bad defensive backs are
especially deadly in Rob Ryan’s defensive system.
Rob Ryan Defenses by DVOA
|
|
DVOA
(rank)
|
Pass
DVOA (rank)
|
Run
DVOA (rank)
|
|
2004
OAK
|
11.5%
(26)
|
29.2%
(30)
|
-4.6%
(15)
|
|
2005
OAK
|
1.9%
(20)
|
13.1%
(27)
|
-8.5%
(14)
|
|
2006
OAK
|
-8.0%
(8)
|
-16.1%
(4)
|
-1.6%
(17)
|
|
2007
OAK
|
5.7%
(20)
|
-1.3%
(13)
|
11.9%
(32)
|
|
2008
OAK
|
3.7%
(19)
|
-0.1%
(13)
|
6.7%
(28)
|
|
2009
CLE
|
16.4%
(30)
|
27.1%
(28)
|
5.4%
(30)
|
|
2010
CLE
|
1.7%
(18)
|
4.6%
(18)
|
-1.1%
(22)
|
|
2011
DAL
|
0.4%
(16)
|
8.5%
(20)
|
-10.9%
(8)
|
|
2012
DAL
|
6.7%
(23)
|
16.2%
(25)
|
-4.1%
(19)
|
|
2013
NO
|
-5.8%
(10)
|
-9.2%
(6)
|
-1.5%
(20)
|
Over his career as a defensive
coordinator, Ryan has predicated his defenses against stopping the run. By
focusing on stopping the run, Ryan likes to put his opponents in third and long
situations, forcing them to pass. In those situations, Ryan can rely on his
defensive creativity to confuse opposing quarterbacks and force them to make
mistakes. As part of his defensive game planning, Ryan, like his brother,
features what is called an “amoeba defense” (it’s also known as a “psycho
front”). Here’s a picture of it below.
This picture is from the first game of
the 2013 season. The amoeba relies on confusing the opposing quarterback by
keeping the defenders moving around, disguising who will rush the quarterback
and who will drop into coverage. Only one Saints defender (defensive end
Cameron Jordan) has his hand on the ground—the traditional stance for rushing
the passer. Everyone else is standing and able to either rush or drop back
depending on the play call. While the amoeba defense can be quite effective in
confusing opposing quarterbacks (the Ryan brothers have had success against
Brees, Brady, and Manning using it), it is high risk and high reward. The amoeba
is particularly susceptible to run plays and screen passes. In the above
situation, the Saints dare the Falcons to run the ball. They have few defenders
in position to stop the run at the line of scrimmage. Screen passes are also
effective because they get the ball out of the quarterback’s hands quickly and
away from the constantly moving defenders. The amoeba is also less successful
when the other components of the defense: the pass rush, defensive backs are
less successful. In order for the amoeba to be successful, the defense needs to
force their opponents into disadvantageous situations.
TURNOVERS
|
|
INT
|
Fumbles
|
Total
|
|
Offense
|
7
|
4
|
11
|
|
Defense
|
3
|
1
|
4
|
|
Turnover
Differential
|
|
|
-7
|
The
Saints have lost the turnover battle this season. Some of that is due to bad
luck. The Saints defense has forced four fumbles, but only recovered one of
them. Meanwhile opponents have forced five fumbles and recovered all of them. Additionally
Brees has thrown more interceptions than usual. His TD/INT ratio this year is
1.57, well below his career average of 2.03. Even worse is that Saints
opponents have turned six of those seven INTs into touchdowns. Some of this
turnover luck should even out. The Saints should recover a few more fumbles and
their opponents will recover a few less.
Overall,
the Saints season has been a combination of poor play and bad luck. The luck
should even out, but the poor play will determine if the Saints can make a run
in the weak NFC South.
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