Saints 2016 Season in Review

            As the NFL enters its offseason doldrums (free agency is essentially over and the draft isn’t for another few weeks), let’s put the New Orleans Saints 2016 season under the microscope. For the third straight season, the Saints finished 7-9 and out of the playoffs. They scored 469 points while allowing 454, posting a positive point differential for the first time since 2013. They underperformed their Pythagorean win expectation by 1.3 wins, suggesting that they were closer to 8-8 rather than 7-9. To review the Saints season, let’s take a look at the offense, defense, and special teams and compare them to the last two seasons. The stats below come from Football Outsiders.

OFFENSE

	Offensive DVOA	Passing DVOA	Rushing DVOA
2016	15.9% (7)	32.7% (6)	5.5% (3)
2015	10.5% (7)	30.1% (7)	-7.1% (15)
2014	10.6% (7)	21.6% (9)	0.8% (9)

Over the last three years, the offense has not been the Saints problem. In fact, they’ve proven remarkably consistent, finishing 7^th in DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average, 0% is league average, on offense positives % are good, negative % are bad, on defense the opposite is true). The power of New Orleans’ offense lays in the passing game, which has improved over the past three years. Despite his advancing age, quarterback Drew Brees has led the NFL in passing yards has averaged nearly 5,000 yards and completed just over 69% of his passes. Even as the Saints have rotated personnel around Brees, the aging quarterback continues to lead a potent offensive attack.

DEFENSE

	Defensive DVOA	Passing DVOA	Rushing DVOA
2016	13.2% (30)	27.1% (29)	-4.7% (19)
2015	26.1% (32)	48.1% (32)	-2.4% (27)
2014	13.1% (31)	19.2% (27)	6.3% (32)

For all the points that Brees and the offense score, the defense just gives them right back. The Saints have been bad on defense for years and while 2016 was an improvement, it was more of a regression to the mean from a historically awful 2015. It’s really hard to be 26% worse than league average year after year. Luck based events, like fumble recoveries or dropped interceptions, tend to balance out over time. Since 2014, New Orleans has had two different defensive coordinators, Rob Ryan and Dennis Allen. After a stellar 2013, Ryan’s defensive scheme confused Saints players more often than it did opposing quarterbacks. Ryan’s shifting personnel groupings and exotic blitz packages failed to adapt to the league’s increasing reliance on the short passing game. Allen hasn’t fared much better in his first full season at the helm. While the Saints secondary endured injuries to Delvin Breaux, P.J. Williams, Damian Swann, and Ken Crawley, apart from Breaux, New Orleans did not have the makings of a top-flight secondary anyway.

This offseason, the Saints management has gone all-in discussing the importance of fixing their defense. Yet this is the same story they tell year after year, claiming that they’re just one good draft away from being competitive on defense. The justification in trading away wide receiver Brandin Cooks was so that they could get extra draft picks to fix the defense. This was the same logic, Saints management used to justify trading away Jimmy Graham in 2015. They then spent their first pick on an offensive guard who doesn’t play guard anymore. Stephone Anthony, the linebacker they chose with the Graham pick, could barely make it onto the field last season. Their second round pick that year, has suffered repeated elbow injuries and missed all of 2016. So while the Saints talk about fixing their defense, don’t believe them until they actually pick some useful players.

SPECIAL TEAMS

	Special Teams DVOA	XP/FG	Kick	Kick Return	Punt	Punt Return
2016	-2.6% (27)	0.0	-5.1	-8.0	1.2	-1.0
2015	-3.2% (26)	-15.4	-2.4	-2.1	3.8	0.2
2014	1.6% (11)	-4.1	-2.5	4.0	13.4	-2.6

(Apart from DVOA, the measurements above are expressed in expected points added from each part of special teams, positive is good, negative is bad).

The missing part of the story regarding the Saints the past few years is just how bad their special teams have been. Now special teams are not as important as offense or defense, but they play a key role in field position, ideally giving your own offense a short field and the opponent’s a long one. The only positive for New Orleans over the past three seasons has been Thomas Morstead’s punting abilities, but his effectiveness has declined due to injuries. Last season, the Saints opponents started their average drive around the 29-yard line, 25^th in the league. Yes, the defense allowed opponents to score, but special teams didn’t do them any favors either.