Saints Playoff Scenarios

            With only three games remaining in the NFL regular season, we thought it would be a good time to take a look at where the New Orleans Saints stand in the playoff race. First, let’s take a look at the divisional race in the NFC South.

NFC South Divisional Standings
	Wins	Losses	Win %
New Orleans	9	4	.692
Carolina	9	4	.692
Atlanta	8	5	.615
Tampa Bay	4	9	.308

New Orleans sits in first place in the NFC South thanks to its two victories over Carolina this season. If the Saints and Panthers finish tied for first, New Orleans will win the division and guarantee itself a home playoff game. Carolina would likely make the playoffs as a wildcard team.

Currently, FiveThirtyEight gives New Orleans a 91% of making the playoffs and a 60% chance of winning the division. The Saints have three games remaining against the New York Jets, Atlanta, and Tampa Bay. Of those three games, the Falcons game looms as the most important. According to FiveThirtyEight, a win over the hapless Jets (very likely) and the Falcons would guarantee the Saints a playoff spot and give them a 94% chance of winning the division heading into the last week of the season. A loss to Atlanta would leave them with an 86% chance of making the postseason and only a 22% chance of winning the division.

Now let’s look at the NFC conference standings to get a sense of who the Saints might be playing in the playoffs and whether they’ll be on the road or at home in January.

NFC Conference Playoff Standings
Playoff Seed	Team	Wins	Losses	Win %
1	Philadelphia	11	2	.846
2	Minnesota	10	3	.769
3	LA Rams	9	4	.692
4	New Orleans	9	4	.692
5	Carolina	9	4	.692
6	Atlanta	8	5	.615

The winners of each of the NFC’s four divisions are first four seeds and the first and second seeds earn byes in the first round of the playoffs. FiveThirtyEight estimates that Philadelphia and Minnesota have a 99% and 83% chance of winning byes. That leaves the LA Rams and the Saints as the most likely teams to host playoff games in the first round against the two wildcard teams. Even if New Orleans managed to finish with the same record as Minnesota, they would not receive a bye since they lost to the Vikings in Week 1. Additionally, the Saints are the fourth, rather than the third seed because of their loss to the Rams a few weeks ago. As a result of these losses, the Saints only have a 5% chance of getting a first round bye.

Under this current playoff scenario, the Saints would host the Carolina Panthers in the first round of the playoffs and then travel to Philadelphia and play the Eagles in round 2. 

So, Saints fans should start getting excited for their first playoff game since 2013 and it will likely be in the Superdome against the rival Carolina Panthers.