While it remains insufferably hot in Louisiana,
the calendar is about to flip from August to September and that means one
thing: it’s football season. Football season in Louisiana means one thing: the
Saints. With all that in mind, let’s turn to our yearly Saints season preview. This
week we’ll start by looking at the offense and next week we’ll tackle the
defense. We’ll go position by position, taking a “What’s new? What’s old?” approach.
With all this in mind, let’s get started.
OFFENSIVE COACHING STAFF
What’s New? This offseason, the
Saints brought in two new position coaches for the offense. Dan Campbell,
formerly the interim head coach of the Miami Dolphins last year, was hired as
the tight ends coach/assistant head coach. Campbell, during his brief run in
Miami, garnered headlines when he announced that he wanted the Dolphins to be a
tougher team—as if this was some ingenious new insight into how to play
football. The Saints also hired Joe Lombardi as their new quarterbacks coach.
If that name seems vaguely familiar, it’s because Lombardi coached the Saints
quarterbacks from 2009-2013. He left to coordinate the Detroit Lions offense in
2014 and midway through the 2015 season before getting fired and replaced by a grown
man named Jim Bob Cooter.
What’s Old? The men at the top of
the offensive coaching staff, head coach Sean Payton and offensive coordinator
Pete Carmichael remain. Since 2009, when Carmichael took over as offensive coordinator,
the Saints have finished an average of 6th in Football Outsiders
offensive DVOA, only finishing outside of the top 10 once—in 2010 when they
finished 11th. With Payton,
Carmichael, and quarterback Drew Brees there’s every reason to think that the
Saints will once again be a top 10 offense.
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| Brees and Payton = offensive success |
QUARTERBACKS
QBs: Drew Brees, Luke McCown, Garret
Grayson
What’s New? Nothing. The Saints
will return the same three quarterbacks they had on their roster last year.
Drew Brees is the starter. Luke McCown is the veteran backup and 2014 3rd
round pick Garret Grayson is the developmental player who may push McCown for
the backup job.
What’s Old? While Brees is
entering his age 37 season, there’s little reason to suspect that he’s slowing
down. In 2015, Brees completed 68.3% of his passes for 4,870 yards and 32
touchdowns. According to Football Outsiders, Brees was 7th among
quarterbacks with a 15.8% DVOA (meaning he was 15.8% better than a league
average quarterback). He was third in QBR with a 75.5 (on a scale of 0-100 with
50 being average). He’s going to decline someday; it’s just hard to say exactly
when.
RUNNING BACKS
Mark Ingram, Tim Hightower, C.J.
Spiller, Daniel Lasco, John Kuhn
What’s New? After losing fullback
Austin Johnson to injury, the Saints signed former Packers fullback John Kuhn.
Kuhn mostly plays in short yardage and goal-line situations. He can also
contribute as a blocker out of the backfield. Lasco is a 7th round
pick from this year’s draft who projects as a bigger running back in the mold
of Pierre Thomas.
What’s Old? Last offseason, the
Saints spent heavily on their running game, ignoring their history of digging
up productive running backs (Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles come to mind) on
the cheap. While Ingram played effectively last season—14th in DYAR
(defense adjusted yards above replacement) and 12th in DVOA—Spiller,
signed to a four year, $16 million contract, was injured and ineffective. He
ran the ball 36 times for 112 yards for a 3.1 yard per carry average. The
speedy Spiller has big play ability, but has rarely been healthy or effective
enough to showcase it. This is a make or break year for him.
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| Brandin Cooks made a lot of great catches last year. Like this one. |
WIDE RECEIVERS/TIGHT ENDS
WRs: Brandin Cooks, Willie Snead,
Michael Thomas, Tommylee Lewis, Brandon Coleman
TEs: Coby Fleener, Josh Hill,
Michael Hoomanawanui
What’s New? The Saints inexplicably
gave Fleener a 5 year, $36 million contract. Fleener, who played for 4 seasons
with the Colts, has rarely been particularly healthy or effective. That’s a lot
of money for a team right up against the salary cap (again), especially after
last season when they garnered great production from tight end Benjamin Watson.
Watson had 74 receptions for 825 yards and 6 touchdowns while counting next to
nothing against the salary cap. As with
the running backs, the Saints have ignored their own history of finding
productive players on the cheap and instead paid top dollar for a tight end who
might not be very good.
What’s Old? Last season, Brandin
Cooks emerged as a number one wide receiver and the Saints best big play and
deep threat. Cooks caught 84 passes for 1,138 yards with 9 touchdowns. With
Cooks, Snead, Coleman, Watson, Hill, and Hoomanawanui, New Orleans finished 7th
in the league in passing offense according to DVOA. With the addition of
Michael Thomas to replace Marques Colston, there’s little reason to think that
the Saints won’t have an effective passing attack.
OFFENSIVE LINE
Terron Armstead, Max Unger, Zach
Strief, Andrus Peat, Tim Lelito, Senio Kelemete, Jack Allen, Tony Hills
What’s New? Not much other than
undrafted center Jack Allen. Allen, however, won’t supplant Max Unger as the
starter at center.
What’s Old? Pretty much
everything else and that’s kind of the problem. The Saints had a decent
offensive line last season, finishing 7th in adjusted sack rate.
Although some of the credit for that pass protection goes to Brees and his
ability to quickly dispense the ball to his wide receivers. The rushing offense
finished 13th in adjusted line yards (an adjusted measure of rushing
yardage). Armstead and Unger are two of the best players in the league at their
respective positions, left tackle and center. Strief will once again be a serviceable
right tackle. The Saints will try out 2014 first rounder Peat at left guard to
replace Jahri Evans who was released this offseason as a cost cutting move. Neither
Lelito or Kelemete has distinguished themselves at right tackle leaving the
Saints with two very effective linemen, one okay guard, and two giant question
marks.
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