Saints Off Season Questions

          The Saints finished the 2014 season with a comeback victory over the Tampa Buccaneers 23-20.  They scored 16 points in the 4^th quarter against a hodgepodge of Buccaneer reserve players. The win dropped Tampa to 2-14 and guaranteed them the first pick in the 2015 draft. The Saints finished the season 7-9, a half game back of Carolina in the NFC South. Now that this disappointing season is over, it’s time to turn to the biggest issues facing the Saints this offseason.

1. Getting under the salary cap.

According to Spotrac, currently the Saints have $161 million in contracts on the books for 2015. They must cut approximately $22 million off that figure to get under the projected salary cap by the time the league year begins in March. The Saints biggest cap hits include:

Player	Cap Hit
Drew Brees	$26,400,000
Junior Galette	$15,450,000
Jimmy Graham	$11,000,000
Jahri Evans	$11,000,000
Jarius Byrd	$10, 300,000

Other players with significant cap figures include WR Marques Colston (9.7 million), G Ben Grubbs (9.6 million), LB Curtis Lofton (9 million) and DT Broderick Buckley (6.1 million). In order to get under the cap the Saints will renegotiate the contracts of players like Galette, turning some of their salary into signing bonuses so that they can spread the cap hit over multiple years. Releasing players like Colston, Lofton, and Buckley will free up about half that figure.

          But converting player salaries into signing bonuses is a double edged sword. It frees up money for the upcoming season, but strains the cap in future years. For example, taking Galette’s $12.5 million roster bonus and converting it into a signing bonus will lower his cap number this season. But it instead spreads the money onto the cap for the remainder of his contract. In order to pay for this year’s team, the Saints will be burdening themselves in future ones.

Will Rob Ryan be back? 

2. Rob Ryan and the Coaching Staff

          The Saints have already fired members of their coaching staff: tight end coach Terry Malone, wide receivers coach Henry Ellard, and assistant defensive backs coach Andre Curtis. Malone joined the coaching staff in 2006 and Ellard and Curtis were hired in 2012. But the biggest question remains the fate of defensive coordinator Rob Ryan.  As we’ve discussed previously, Ryan is the fourth defensive coordinator of the Sean Payton era. He oversaw a surprisingly competent defense in 2013 and a wildly disappointing one in 2014. If the Saints want to retain Ryan, they can claim that key injuries to players like Jarius Byrd and Rafael Bush undermined the defense. Sean Payton and Mickey Loomis also know that defense, unlike offense, varies wildly from year to year. So why change coordinators when the defense is likely to be better next year? (Especially since there’s no way they could be worse in 2015) The biggest argument against retaining Ryan is the defense’s overall regression. It is difficult to point to a part of the defense or even a single player that improved from 2013 to 2014.  For example, according to Football Outsiders, in 2013, the Saints pass rush sacked opposing quarterbacks on 8.6% of passing attempts, good for fourth in the NFL. In 2014, they produced 34 sacks for an adjusted sack rate of just 6.0%, ranking just 26^th.  So do the Saints give Ryan the opportunity in 2015 to turn things around or do they go shopping for a new defensive coordinator?

           

What does the Saints brain-trust have in mind this offseason? 

3. Free Agency and the Draft

          The Saints have a number of roster upgrades that they need to address through free agency and the draft. Due to their 7-9 record, the Saints will pick 13^th. This season they have their full complement of draft picks, although GM Mickey Loomis is unafraid to trade away picks to move up in the draft. These kinds of trades, historical analysis has shown, tend to do more harm than good, but that’s a subject for another post. Currently the Saints offseason needs include a second starting cornerback across from Keenan Lewis. Opposing offenses frequently exploited Patrick Robinson, Corey White, and the other defensive backs opposite of Lewis. A middle linebacker capable of covering running backs out of the backfield should help the Saints improve their last in the league ranking against passing catching running backs. Offensive line help will help offset declines from aging players like Ben Grubs, Jahri Evans, and Zack Strief. While Jimmy Graham and Brandin Cooks should be healthy next season, a possession receiver, ala Lance Moore, would provide Drew Brees another option in the passing game.

           The Saints have a tough salary cap situation, major questions on their defense, and significant holes to fill in their roster. Next season’s success or failure will ride on the decisions that the Saints management make over the next few months.