Better Call Doug

A few years ago, our friends the Mighty Pelicans recorded "Better Call Doug" a song in honor of DGA's very own, Doug Green. The song is available below along with pictures from last year's Crawfish Boil. Enjoy! 

King Cakes Are Back!

Listen, we're not going to talk about happened in Sunday's game. The wound is still too fresh; it's just too soon. We all know what happened and the consequences. We'll just let the Pontchartrain Causeway sign have the last word. 

There is good news. We can eat our feelings with king cake, that wonderful staple of the Mardi Gras season. For the uninitiated, the king cake is a pastry of extraordinary simplicity and deliciousness. King cake season runs through Fat Tuesday and it's impossible to celebrate Mardi Gras without eating at least one king cake. 

Cake to celebrate these guys? Sure, why not? 

King cake season lasts from January 6 until Mardi Gras. Why January 6? January 6 is the Feast of the Epiphany, celebrating the visit of the Three Magi (or Kings) to the infant baby Jesus. The first king cakes appeared in France during the Medieval period as a way to celebrate this important moment in the Christian calendar. They soon became an important feature of Carnival (otherwise known as Mardi Gras). 

When the French came to New Orleans in the early 17th century, they brought their holidays and traditions with them. Explorer Pierre Le Moyne d’Iberville landed on the coast about sixty miles south of present day New Orleans on March 2, 1699—the day before Mardi Gras. The holiday and the subsequent French colony stuck. 

The king cake, however, did not take hold until the early 1870s. French immigrants brought their king cake recipes with them and in classic New Orleans fashion, a new tradition merged with the old to create something wonderful. It took until about 1950 for the king cake to become a popular staple of New Orleans cuisine. In the past decade or so, king cakes have really come into their own. Popular interest in all things New Orleans grew after Hurricane Katrina and next day shipping have allowed king cakes to be shipped across the country, spreading their influence and deliciousness.

Is that the baby Jesus there?

Now let’s talk about the cake itself. The King cake began as a circular bread dough topped with sugar with a bean inside. Over the past several hundred years, however, the king cake has evolved into a sweet cake covered with sugar and icing. The dough, previously hollow, is now braided and stuffed with cinnamon, cream cheese, or other fillings.  The colors atop a King cake are the same as the ones of Mardi Gras—purple for justice, green for faith, and gold for power.  

King cakes also feature a small plastic baby hidden somewhere in or underneath the cake. Tradition holds that the person who finds the baby is responsible for buying the next cake. Some claim that the baby represents the baby Jesus and that McKenzie's Pastry Shoppes, a New Orleans area bakery, were the first to put the baby in the cake. In 1990, McKenzie's owner Donald Entringer Sr. denied that the baby had anything to do with Jesus. He told the New Orleans Times-Picayune, “I've heard people say it's supposed to represent the Christ Child, but that's not true. Why we picked this, I don't know. It was cute. It was just a trinket that happened to be a baby.” Whatever the truth may be, watch out for the baby when you bite into your first slice of King cake.

The former King Cake Capital of NOLA 

Unsurprisingly here at DGA, everyone has their own king cake preferences. Bill is a big fan of the King cakes from Butter Krisp Diner in Covington. He prefers homemade king cakes and ones filled with strawberry cream cheese. 

Benson has a lasting affection for the king cakes once made by McKenzie’s. Luckily, the Tastee Donut chain in-and-around New Orleans purchased McKenzie’s old recipe and sells them at their stores. McKenzie’s consists of a simple brioche without cinnamon or filling. There’s only colored sugar topping the cake. 

Matt prefers the Mandeville Bake Shop because it's near his house, though the best one he’s ever had came from Randazzo’s. 

Doug’s favorite king cake is whatever one appears at his house. 

NFC Championship Game Preview

Did you hear? The Saints won! 

            On Sunday, the New Orleans Saints started off their game against the Philadelphia Eagles just about as badly as you could imagine. On the Saints first play from scrimmage, Eagles defensive back Cre’Von LeBlanc intercepted a Drew Brees pass meant for Ted Ginn Jr. Philadelphia then scored a touchdown to go up 7-0. After New Orleans went three-and-out on their next drive, the Eagles marched down the field for another touchdown with a 10 play, 75-yard drive that ate up over five minutes of clock. Philadelphia’s win probability had swung from 26.9% to 70.8% in less than 11 minutes of game time. 

            Ultimately, though the Saints climbed their way back into the game thanks to some patented aggressiveness by Brees and head coach Sean Payton. New Orleans scored 10 points before the half, but it was in the third quarter that the Saints took the lead for good. Brees led the New Orleans offense on a drive that took nearly eleven and a half minutes, covering 92 yards, and culminating in a Michael Thomas touchdown. New Orleans offense converted 2^nd and 20 and 3^rd and 16 into first downs. They even overcame 3 penalties on the offense. 

            All told, Brees went 28-38 for 301 yards and two TDs. Running back Alvin Kamara had 16 carries for 71 yards and wide receiver Michael Thomas dominated the Eagles catching 12 passes for 171 yards and the go-ahead touchdown. For as poorly as the Saints played in the opening quarter, they played fantastic from the second quarter on and sent the Philadelphia packing. 

            Next week, however, against the Los Angeles Rams, New Orleans cannot afford to go down 14-0 again. This time they might not get back up. 

	Total DVOA	Weighted DVOA
New Orleans	20.7% (4)	26.0% (2)
Los Angeles	23.7% (2)	19.0% (6)

            Taking a broad look at both teams, the Saints and Rams are closely matched. Over the course of the entire season, LA narrowly edged out the Saints in Total DVOA, but at the end of the year, New Orleans led in weighted DVOA (weighted DVOA discounts earlier season games in favor or later season ones. Total DVOA treats all games equally). 

SAINTS OFFENSE vs. RAMS DEFENSE 

	DVOA	PASS DVOA	RUN DVOA
New Orleans Offense	15.9% (4)	34.4% (4)	3.3 (8)
Los Angeles Defense	0.8% (19)	0.2% (9)	1.5% (28)

            When the Saints have the ball, we know what the game plan is. Drew Brees makes a lot of short and intermediate passes to Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara. Mark Ingram takes the bulk of the handoffs while Kamara gets his touches as well. Payton and offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael have a package of plays for QB/TE/RB/whatever other position you’d like him to play Taysom Hill. The Saints offensive line is once again excellent at pass protection—3^rd in adjusted sack rate—and at blocking for the run game—2^nd in adjusted line yards. 

The Rams defense has shown few signs of being able to slow down the Saints stars. In the last matchup with the Rams in November, Kamara and Ingram ran for 115 yards on 28 carries and Michael Thomas had 12 receptions for 211 yards. They don’t stop the run very well. They’re 19^th in adjusted sack rate so they don’t get a lot of pressure and they’re 28^th in DVOA against #1 wide receivers, so look for Michael Thomas to have another big game. While it would be foolish to underestimate legendary Rams defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, Los Angeles doesn’t have a dominant defense. 

SAINTS DEFESE vs. RAMS OFFENSE 

	DVOA	PASS DVOA	RUN DVOA
New Orleans Defense	-3.1% (11)	10.2% (22)	-24.9% (3)
Los Angeles Offense	24.6% (2)	32.1% (5)	22.1% (1)

            This is more interesting of part of the game. The Rams run the overwhelming majority of their plays out of 11 personnel—meaning that they have 1 running back, 1 tight end, and 3 wide receivers on the field. Their offense is so successful because of the way that Los Angeles head coach Sean McVay deploys this grouping in different ways. He constantly changes wide receiver routes and uses running back Todd Gurley as a receiver and runner—very much like the way the Saints use Alvin Kamara. Wide receivers Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods are a formidable 1-2 combo. Cooks, as he was back in his Saints days, is a dangerous deep threat and Woods works the middle of the field and the sidelines very effectively. 

            The question for the New Orleans defense will be if they can effectively stop Gurley on the ground and force the Rams to be one-dimensional on offense. But even when the Rams rely solely on their passing game, they’re tough to stop. In the teams’ November matchup, Gurley has 68 yards on 13 carries for an average of 5.2 yards per carry. Quarterback Jared Goff went 28-40 for 391 yards and 3 TDs. In total, the Rams scored 35 points. 

SPECIAL TEAMS/COACHING

            The Rams and Saints are similarly matched on special teams. Both teams feature good punters—Johnny Hekker and Thomas Morstead. Despite his miss from 52 yards on Sunday, Wil Lutz has been one of the best kickers in the NFL this season. Los Angeles kicker Greg Zuerlein missed a month or so early in the season, but remains one of the league’s most accurate kickers. 

            Sean Payton is Sean Payton. He’s aggressive on 4^th down. He and Brees have a rapport built over thousands of plays that is nearly unmatched in the NFL. There’s not much else to say here. Second year Rams head coach Sean McVay is the league’s rising star. The biggest requirement for a new head coach this year seemed to be knowing or working for McVay. Last season, he revitalized Goff’s career and turned Los Angeles from an also-ran into a championship contender. McVay might very well be the next Sean Payton in terms of offensive creativity and play-calling. 

            Two offensive gurus, a Hall of Fame QB looking for his second ring, and a Superdome crowd that will be absolutely insane. The game may come down to whichever team has the ball last. And if that’s the case, I know where I’m putting my money. Saints 41 Rams 38 

Saints-Eagles Preview

It's playoff time! 

           Now that the NFL’s wildcard weekend is over, we know who the New Orleans Saints will play during next weekend’s divisional round. On Sunday afternoon, the Saints will host the Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles. The winner will move on to play the winner of the Los Angeles Rams and Dallas Cowboys game for the NFC championship. As we’ve done in years past, let’s look at both teams using Football Outsiders DVOA metric (for a reminder teams are measured in percentages with 0% as league average).  Let’s start broadly and then move into more detail. 

	Total DVOA	Weighted DVOA
New Orleans	20.7% (4)	26.0% (2)
Philadelphia	0.0% (15)	3.6% (16)

            This will be the second matchup between the Saints and Eagles this season. In Week 11, New Orleans thoroughly dominated Philadelphia 48-7. Drew Brees threw for 363 yards and 4 touchdowns. Mark Ingram ran for 103 yards and two rushing TDs. The Saints defense held the Eagles to only 13 first downs and 196 total yards. Eagles QB Caron Wentz went 19-33 for 156 yards and 3 interceptions. New Orleans’ victory was one of their most impressive this season. 

            Based on this previous matchup as well as each teams’ overall performance this season, FiveThirtyEight gives the Saints a 64% chance of victory. Overall, the Saints enter the playoffs as not only the favorites to win the NFC, but the Super Bowl as well. Football Outsiders gives New Orleans a 25.5% chance of winning Super Bowl LIII. FiveThirtyEight is similarly bullish at 22%. 

            The Eagles, however, have made some significant changes since their Week 11 matchup. After the loss to the Saints, Philadelphia won 5 of its last 6 games and captured the NFC’s sixth seed. For the last three games, backup quarterback and last year’s Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles replaced an injured Wentz in the lineup. In three games against the Rams, Texans, and Washington, Foles nearly 77% of his passes (87-113) for 962 yards with six TDs and 3 INTs. Over those last three games, the Eagles scored 86 points while allowing only 53. They are the proverbial “hot” team entering the playoffs. 

SAINTS ON OFFENSE vs. EAGLES ON DEFENSE 

	Total DVOA	Pass DVOA	Run DVOA
New Orleans	15.9% (4)	34.4% (3)	3.3% (8)
Philadelphia	0.0% (15)	6.7% (15)	-12.3% (9)

            When the Saints are on offense, they have a clear advantage over the Eagles’ defense. Philadelphia had a league average defense and a secondary that has been ravaged by injuries. The Saints are well-equipped to exploit this mismatch. Philadelphia ranks 24^th in DVOA against pass-catching running backs. In other words, look for Sean Payton and Drew Brees to dial up a healthy dose of short passes to running back Alvin Kamara. If the Eagles deploy extra players to take Kamara away, then the Saints are poised to take advantage of Philadelphia’s 15^th ranked defense against No. 1 receivers and pass the ball to star wide receiver Michael Thomas. Additionally, the Eagles don’t generate much of a pass rush—22^nd in adjusted sack rate—so Brees should have plenty of time in the pocket to find open receivers. 

            The strength of Philadelphia’s defense comes from their rush defense. The Eagles defensive line ranks sixth in adjusted line yards and second in the NFL at stopping opposing rushers at or behind the line of scrimmage. The Eagles have a good defensive line that is capable of stopping the run, but their linebackers are especially vulnerable—last in the league in terms of allowing rushes of 10+ yards. If New Orleans can wear down Philadelphia’s defensive line, they should be able to exploit the linebackers for big runs. 

SAINTS ON DEFENSE vs. EAGLES ON OFFENSE 

	Total DVOA	Pass DVOA	Run DVOA
New Orleans	-3.1% (11)	10.2% (22)	-24.9% (3)
Philadelphia	-0.3% (16)	18.1% (11)	-13.5% (27)

            When the Eagles are on offense, things get a little more even. Philadelphia has an average offense overall with a good passing game dragged down by a poor running game. Unfortunately, the Saints strength is their run defense, but Philadelphia can’t run the ball effectively. So for Saints fans they’ll have to keep an eye on the passing game. Is Eagles quarterback Nick Foles getting enough time to find his receivers and take advantage of the Saints secondary? 

            That question will be answered in several areas of the field. First, the Saints rank 4^thin adjusted sack rate and the pass rush led by Cam Jordan will be key in containing Foles. Philadelphia ranks 17^th in adjusted sack rate, but their line has been playing better in recent weeks. If the New Orleans pass rush can get to Foles early and often, then the Eagles will be in trouble. If they can’t, then Foles will have time to pick apart the Saints secondary. The Saints cornerbacks, after being a strength of the defense last year, are a real weakness this season. Defensively New Orleans ranks 30^th and 31^st against No. 1 and No. 2 wide receivers. They’re also 29^th against pass-catching running backs. If Foles has time in the pocket to find his receivers, then this will be a competitive game. 

SPECIAL TEAMS/COACHING 

            The Saints have the edge in special teams. After some pitiful showings in recent years, New Orleans finished 9^th in special teams DVOA. The strengths of the Saints special teams are their kicker Wil Lutz and punter Thomas Morstead. Lutz and Morestead were worth 6.8 and 5.3 expected points this year. Philadelphia’s special teams were average across the board—15^th in DVOA—except for their punter Cameron Johnston, a former Australian football player. He added 6.4 expected points from his punting alone. 

            Sean Payton and Doug Pederson are well matched. Both are known as aggressive play-callers and are among the league leaders in going for it on fourth down. Don’t expect either team to play it safe during this game. 

            While the Eagles have been playing better since the 48-7 beatdown in Week 11, their path to victory is narrower than the Saints. Philadelphia needs the back end of their defense to hold up against the Saints passing attack. If they try to take away Kamara, then Brees will favor Michael Thomas and vice versa. The Eagles also need their offensive line to hold up against the New Orleans pass rush so that Foles can find his receivers. If they don’t, then the Eagles will be in for a long day. 

New Orleans 38, Philadelphia 17